I am confused as to why anyone would not flip the switch? Flipping the switch seems to have somewhere between a 10% and 100% chance of saving your life, and not flipping the switch seems to guarantee death?
Is there some kind of penalty to flipping the switch that I am missing?
Or is the drawing misleading, and in Scenario B, there is also supposed to be a person drawn on the other track?
You are on the side track in scenario A. You die if you pull. Ironically, you’d be killing yourself. The dice are to make the two scenarios not equally likely.
there’s no way to know which track the trolley is on
It’s a standard trolley meme problem, the trolley will keep going on the main track unless the lever is switched 😁. I thought !science_memes would be familiar with trolley problems, but I guess I get to introduce some of you! You might want to start off on some easier trolley memes first, this is advanced level stuff.
where the real lever sends it
There is not usually ambiguity with the lever. If you wish, you can have an announcement in the headphones “main track… side track…” every time you flip the lever. Your only uncertainty is which track you yourself are bound to, given how you’re blindfolded.
Yeah, if I woke up tied to train tracks and had someone explain that to me, I’d zone out and then panic because I had no idea what the fuck was going on
I don’t get it. Do we know that the trolley is heading for the people or not? Do we know if flipping the switch moves it away from whatever track that the people are on? Or is it going in the main track in all instances unless you hit the switch?
I assume a villain would aim the trolley at the people, regardless of what track they’re on. That’s why they’re villains. So I would always flip it.
It’s a standard runaway trolley problem. The trolley is traveling down the main track unless the switch is flipped to send it down the side track. The lever is labeled such that there is no ambiguity which way it is set, the blindfolds notwithstanding. The villain is pernicious and will be equally (though not exceedingly so) delighted to see you die by your own action where inaction would have had saved you. You can somehow trust that the announcement in the headphones is true and not a lie. Such as, for example, you have seen this exact situation happen many times before on TV and survivors/witnesses have described the villain to be truthful every time.
There’s a five in six chance you are picked 1 out of X, and a one in six chance you are 10 out of X.
If you’ve been picked, there are three possible outcomes.
Flipping the lever kills you. 5/6 x 1/X
Flilling the lever saves you and 9 other people. 1/6 x 1/X
Flipping the lever does nothing at all. 1/6 x 9/X
From a purely statistical standpoint, you’re five times more likely to die flipping the lever, but the expected value, measured in lives saved, for flipping the lever is twice as high as not.
From a purely altruistic measure, you should always flip the lever, because at worst you kill yourself, at best you save 10 people, and you can do it with significant confidence that it doesn’t actually matter.
But back to my original question, 5/6X vs 1/6X vs 9/6X where as X approaches infinity, the difference becomes negligible.
Good question to ask, since specifics of selection process may affect the decision outcome! Other variants include growing humans in a vat from scratch on demand, using Star Trek transporter clones, or abducting the necessary number of people from a pre-selected list where your name happens to be the first one. For now, imagine the potential population as the 5 billion living cognizant adults.
as X approaches infinity, the difference becomes negligible
It may be negligible to the 4.999… billion adults sleeping comfortably and securely in their beds tonight, but the problem presupposed that you have already been abducted. It remains underdefined whether you refers to you the specific person reading this meme, or a more general you-the-unfortunate who has been chosen and is now listening to this on the headphones.
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