That one appears to have turned out to not be the case, fortunately. He wrote up a very long post with a lot of receipts (which is worth a read). He filed a libel suit against his two accusers, which ended up being settled out of court with a large payout in his favour and with the accusers retracting their accusations, categorically saying he had never sexually abused either of them (or any other women to their knowledge).
I see some correct solutions for the 50% case here already, so this reply is going for a perfect score within two tries.
There are 16 ways to answer the quiz, one of which is correct. Assuming you don’t repeat your previous answers, two attempts give you a 2/16 or 1/8 chance that one of them is perfect.
Now if you get feedback between your attempts, you should be able to do better. Let’s see by how much and break it into cases:
Your first guess is already perfect. This happens 1/16 of the time. No further guessing is needed.
Your first guess is 50% correct. This happens 3/8 of the time. Picking one of the unguessed answers improves your score to 100% 1/6 of the time.
Your first guess is completely wrong. This happens 9/16 of the time. Picking different answers for both questions wins 1/9 of the time.
So the overall chance of a perfect score is the weighted sum of these cases or 1/16 + (3/8 * 1/6) + (9/16 * 1/9) = 3/16.
People are willing to spend or sacrifice for specific goals with good chances of actually reaching them. Otherwise they would turn away, unimpressed.
Also, the measure of how good the chances must be, and how specific the goal needs to be, is very diverse between the cultures and societies.
So, less is more: limit your scope to 1 country and culture, restrain your goals to specific and realistic ones, and you can achieve a lot with many followers.
GPT-4 answered this. I will link it’s calculations down below in the next comment.
The probability of passing the test by brute force guessing (i.e., getting at least one question right) is approximately 68.36%. This includes the scenarios where you get one question right and one wrong, or both questions right.
Additionally, the probability of getting a perfect score (i.e., both questions right) by guessing is approximately 19.14%.
To calculate the odds of getting a passing grade (at least one question correct) or a perfect score (both questions correct) through brute-force guessing, let’s break down the scenario:
Each question has 4 possible answers, and only one is correct.
You have two attempts to answer each question.
You remember your previous answers and do not repeat them.
First, we’ll calculate the probability of guessing at least one question correctly. There are two scenarios where you pass:
Scenario 1: You get one question right and one wrong.
Scenario 2: You get both questions right.
For each question:
Probability of getting it right in one of the two tries = ( 1 - ) (Probability of getting it wrong twice)
Probability of getting it wrong in one try = ( \frac{3}{4} ) (since there are 3 wrong answers out of 4)
Probability of getting it wrong twice = ( \left( \frac{3}{4} \right)^2 )
So, the probability of getting at least one question right in two attempts is ( 1 - \left( \frac{3}{4} \right)^2 ).
For two questions:
Scenario 1 (One Right, One Wrong):
Probability of getting one question right (as calculated above) multiplied by the probability of getting the other question wrong twice.
Scenario 2 (Both Right):
Probability of getting each question right (as calculated above) and multiplying these probabilities together.
The overall probability of passing (getting at least one question right) is the sum of the probabilities of these two scenarios.
GPT-4 is a language model, and while it was an interesting take, it appears to be the wrong tool for the job.
The answer is wrong and without any documentation or proof showing the line of thought to determine the result it’s just a useless number.
Math is not really about the result. It is about understanding the process. Having an AI do that is completely against the purpose of asking this kind of questions in the first place. OP doesn’t need to know if the chance is 68% or 75%, but rather how to figure it out.
For a passing grade - the easy way to calculate it is by calculating the chance of failing and then subtracting it from 1. To fail, you need to get the first two questions wrong (3/4 times 3/4) and then get them both wrong again on the second try (2/3 times 2/3 since you are choosing from the remaining 3 choices for each). So 3/4 x 3/4 x 2/3 x 2/3 = 1/4 or 25%, so you have a 75% chance of passing.
I’ve never been much of a Christmas person. But 2020-2022 were the most Christmasy I’ve ever felt (probably because we were at home and decided to embrace with a tree and roast dinner etc it rather than our usual travelling holiday).
Now that we’re fully back to our old lifestyle, I don’t even notice that it’s Christmas/end of year until someone brings it up.
I bought drugs. It was super sketchy. It was very stupid but I was young. We were in a taxi driving who the fuck knows where. It wasn’t even a road. We ended up in an alley in a ghetto where we bought the driest, shittiest Mexican dirt weed I’ve ever seen. We went to a strip club after that. The other person with me drank a little too much and got scammed by some girl. The night ended with the bouncers taking us to an ATM where he had to empty his account. In a separate incident, we were held up at gunpoint by some paramilitary guys in camo. I ended up getting really sick on that trip too. I went to a doctor who gave me a shot in the ass of something. It hurt like hell and didn’t make me feel better. I had to come home early and get antibiotics. I would rate it a 0/10. In retrospect, I’m lucky I didn’t end up kidnapped for ransom or dead. Not one of my finer moments.
I’m unwillingly associated with Nazis often when I disagree with people online. I deal with it by going on with my day, since there’s nothing else I can do about it.
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