I think you're correct. The older accounts definitely were more likely to use 3rd party apps I believe. I know I tried the mobile site and then several 3rd party apps before they developed the official Android app. I remember really hoping for "Alien Blue Android." I tried the official app when they gave a week? of gold for trying it and concluding my app, probably Sync, was much better.
I think if they'd made the official app really competitive from the start, a lot of daily users would have switched to it. They could have done things a lot differently and been profitable by now.