Just a matter of a year or two before it’s doing workhorse cargo launches probably.
I doubt that. I’m a big fan of the concept, But SpaceX is behind their promises schedule in a way that would make NASA blush.
Starship launches are becoming less transparent in what they share and information is becoming less frequent. Starship is supposed to land humans on the moon for Artemis III for 4 billion dollars but right now it can’t even make orbit without violently exploding for mostly unknown reasons.
The main lesson from launch 1 was that a deluge system is an absolute must, like literally everyone told them, but Musk personally vetoed. Now they have something almost the same, but more complicated because Musk refused to do things on time. And the lessons from launch 2? Who knows, they stopped talking, and analysis of the videos is very hard because SpaceX realized random YouTubers could analyse their failures.
Remember, Elon said we’d have 2 Starships on Mars in 2023.