No. Use surveys and you know when a third party is ready.
It will never happen as long as FPTP is in place. You might get realignments, but it will always snap back to two major parties and a smattering of parties that can at most be spoilers. Fortunately the way the US’s voting works allows some gradual introduction of other systems like ranked choice that will not result in wasting votes.
Furthermore if both parties are neoliberal then wasting a vote is not such a big problem.
It is if you care about the actual tangible effects of your vote. Take LGBTQ rights. Democrats are, as a general rule, far better than Republicans. Wasting your vote because neither of the two significant parties does exactly what you want on some issues means hanging vulnerable groups out to dry. And for what, to feel emotional satisfaction?
BeneGesseritWitch