morrowind, 1 year ago (edited 1 year ago)

From a purely utilitarianism perspective, assuming all utility is linear and unscaled:

5/6 chance I’m on the side track * 1 person saved = 5/6

1/6 chance on the main track * 1/10 chance my switch is real * 10 people saved = 1/6

Seems pretty clear that you should not flip the switch. However, if I am on the main track, this thinking will lead to no-one flipping the switch and no lives saved whereas everyone thinking it will lead to a guaranteed save -> utility of 10/6.

If I can assume more than half the people can be rational and will think like me then I should flip the switch.

If I cannot, I should not flip the switch.