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JoBo, to nostupidquestions in Is PLA a good material for 3D printing a tool intended to remove pack ice from a driveway?

Try salt?

JoBo, to nostupidquestions in Is PLA a good material for 3D printing a tool intended to remove pack ice from a driveway?

How big is the printer? This sounds like a very expensive, bad idea.

JoBo, (edited ) to asklemmy in Why is Australia the only "core anglosphere" country where voting is mandatory?

The idea gets raised periodically here, especially since the huge drop in turnout starting in 1997.

There’s a Research Briefing on it in the Commons Library.

I haven’t read it but it’s a terrible idea. Just another way for the parties to avoid having to offer anything worth voting for.

JoBo, to asklemmy in Lottery winner

There’s a huge difference between what they’re paid by the state and what their backers pump in to put and keep the ‘right’ (wrong) people in power.

JoBo, to asklemmy in What are your best air fryer/oven recipes?

Not really a recipe but they’re excellent for cheap bacon that’s been packed full of water and ends up boiling if you try to fry it.

JoBo, to science_memes in Probability.... Need I say more?!

That is not missing, it’s the entire fucking point of the cartoon.

JoBo, to asklemmy in The year is 2025. President-for-life Trump watches the Hunger Games on Netflix for the first time and decides he wants to see it in real life. Which tribute do you place your bets on?

The fuck is wrong with you?

JoBo, to historyporn in OJ Simpson freeway chase, 1994

No there isn’t.

JoBo, to asklemmy in Why is canned soup often so bad even though soup tends to improve as leftovers?

The can is used to preserve it and prevent the processes that would otherwise make it better.

Canned soup - which is a bunch of ingredients sealed in a tin then heated to cook and pasteurise it - is never going to taste as good as fresh ingredients that only need to stay edible for a few days, not a few years.

JoBo, to asklemmy in The year is 2025. President-for-life Trump watches the Hunger Games on Netflix for the first time and decides he wants to see it in real life. Which tribute do you place your bets on?

Dunno why you’re getting downvoted. This is a fun question.

I don’t know how to answer it but I guess I would have to bet with my heart and say we skip straight to the last chapter: Trump is toppled and replaced by some only slightly lesser evil who is at least forced to make some (temporary) pro-social concessions to the wider populace.

JoBo, to asklemmy in Why does America say 'merry christmas'?

Common in the UK too. I think it’s because we often add “… and a happy New Year”. Two happies doesn’t scan and merry New Year doesn’t work as well.

JoBo, to asklemmy in Who doesn't use an adblocker and why?

If you do use one what other blocking do you use to circumvent data collection, YouTube and reddit front ends and things alike?

Firefox on maximum security will get rid of all cookies when you close the window (ie exit from Firefox, not just close the tab). If there are sites that require cookies, you can use Firefox containers to stop it collecting data across other sites).

I do use adblockers but there are sites which deserve the revenue (and don’t bombard you with shite) so I try to remember to whitelist them. But I’m not as diligent about this as I should be. Someone does have to pay for it and we don’t have a decent system to do that without advertising (yet). I can’t subscribe to the eleventy million sites I visit so advertising is a necessary evil (atm). Obviously, denying bad sites the advertising revenue is a public service, so there’s that.

JoBo, (edited ) to science_memes in how is pragent formed?

I’m going to have to object. We don’t use “false positive” and “false negative” as synonyms for Type I and Type II error because they’re not the same thing. The difference is at the heart of the misuse of p-values by so many researchers, and the root of the so-called replication crisis.

Type I error is the risk of falsely concluding that the quantities being compared are meaningfully different when they are not, in fact, meaningfully different. Type II error is the risk of falsely concluding that they are essentially equivalent when they are not, in fact, essentially equivalent. Both are conditional probabilities; you can only get a Type I error when the things are, in truth, essentially equivalent and you can only get a Type II error when they are, in truth, meaningfully different. We define Type I and Type II errors as part of the design of a trial. We cannot calculate the risk of a false positive or a false negative without knowing the probability that the two things are meaningfully different.

This may be a little easier to follow with an example:

Let’s say we have designed an RCT to compare two treatments with Type I error of 0.05 (95% confidence) and Type II error of 0.1 (90% power). Let’s also say that this is the first large phase 3 trial of a promising drug and we know from experience with thousands of similar trials in this context that the new drug will turn out to be meaningfully different from control around 10% of the time.

So, in 1000 trials of this sort, 100 trials will be comparing drugs which are meaningfully different and we will get a false negative for 10 of them (because we only have 90% power). 900 trials will be comparing drugs which are essentially equivalent and we will get a false positive for 45 of them (because we only have 95% confidence).

The false positive rate is 45/135 (33.3%), nowhere near the 5% Type I error we designed the trial with.

Statisticians are awful at naming things. But there is a reason we don’t give these error rates the nice, intuitive names you’d expect. Unfortunately we’re also awful at explaining things properly, so the misunderstanding has persisted anyway.

This is a useful page which runs through much the same ideas as the paper linked above but in simpler terms: The p value and the base rate fallacy

And this paper tries to rescue p-values from oblivion by calling for 0.005 to replace the usual 0.05 threshold for alpha: Redefine statistical significance.

JoBo, to asklemmy in Do you prefer to wear a smartwatch or a regular watch?

I stopped wearing a regular watch when I started carrying a phone around.

I started wearing a smart watch when I found one that I could take and make calls from, so that I didn’t have to carry my phone around.

JoBo, to asklemmy in Non-religious Republicans of Lemmy, how do you reconcile your non-religious convictions with a party that bases a lot of its policies on religion?

In my non-USian understanding, it means you can vote in the primaries (the party-specific elections that choose candidates for the actual election).

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