themurphy

@themurphy@lemmy.world

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What is Something Scientific that you just don't believe in at all?

EDIT: Let’s cool it with the downvotes, dudes. We’re not out to cut funding to your black hole detection chamber or revoke the degrees of chiropractors just because a couple of us don’t believe in it, okay? Chill out, participate with the prompt and continue with having a nice day. I’m sure almost everybody has something...

themurphy, (edited )

This problem doesn’t make any sense.

If one wrong door is always opened, your chance was never 1/3 to begin with, so you are thinking about this problem with the wrong premise, making it hard to grasp. You were just assuming it was 1/3 because you didn’t know one door would be taken away.

As soon as the wrong door is opened, your odds are never 1/3 nor 2/3. It’s 1/2 because there’s only two doors. What did you think the number after / stood for?

EDIT: Now I’ve tried to look through the examples in the article, and it honestly just makes it worse.

The example about picking a door at 1/1000, and then Monty removing 998 of the doors, leaving two doors, therefore making it more likely you should pick the one Monty left open, is also stupid - because it’s not comparable.

The above example is true. The likelihood of Monty being right is much higher.

But your pick is never 1/1000 when there’s only 3 doors, making the example not compatible with the other. The 1000 door example is not wrong - you just can’t compare them.

And now to explain why it’s different:

In the 3 door example, your “pick power” is 1. Means you can pick 1 door. Montys “pick power” is also 1, making you both equally strong.

This means that you picking a door gives as much intel as Monty picking a door does. No matter what, you will always be left with 1 door not being picked.

Now you look at the 2 doors. The one you picked, and the one nobody did. Now this problem suggests that Monty has given you new information because he removed a door, but he didn’t give you that, and here’s why:

The problem suggests that Monty gives you intel by removing a door in a 1/3 scenario. But he doesn’t. That’s an illusion.

From Montys perspective, he only has 2 doors to pick from, because he can NEVER remove yours, no matter what you picked.

Now Monty has made his choice, and this is where we turn the game around making it clear it was a 1/2 choice all along.

Because the thing you are picking between is not the doors anymore. It was never about the doors.

You are picking between if Monty is bluffing or not.

Let’s say you always pick door 1 as your first option. Monty will always remove 2 or 3. Either Monty removes door 2 or 3 because he helps you, or he’s doing it because he’s bluffing.

If you didn’t get any more help, this WOULD’VE been a 1/3. You’d have to choose between if Monty bluffed at door 2 or he bluffed at door 3, or he bluffed at both, because it was your door.

But then Monty goes ahead and removes a door, let’s say 3 (or 2 if you want, it doesn’t matter). He tells you it’s not that one. Now you have to choose if he’s bluffing at door 2 or he’s bluffing at your door.

You now have a 1/2 to call his bluff.

Monty was the enemy all along - not the doors.

themurphy,

Marques Brownlee for tech.

He’s also known as MKBHD, and he’s amazing with his camera work.

themurphy,

Ads in apps don’t care about that. DNS blocking will take them too.

themurphy, (edited )

Then I have the Plugin for you two.

AdNauseam

They block all ads like uBlock, but they make sure to click and view them first without you noticing. They’ll also send the wrong information about you to the advertisers.

The content creators will actually receive more money that way.

themurphy,

You’ll be surprised how many people likes ads, and likes how much they know about you.

I don’t agree, but I can see the logic in that. If you see ads anyway, why not see them specialised to you making them somewhat relevant.

Awful take I know, but it’s the reality for many people.

themurphy,

One question though.

Can’t you enable a filter list on uBlock Origin that removes all cookie consents?

I think I have it on. It’s under “Annoyances”. Maybe it’s not as good since you have them both?

themurphy,

Yeah haha, there’s actually some nice block lists in the settings you can turn on.

Also region specifics.

themurphy,

Relay for Reddit is by far the best client I’ve used. Relay for Lemmy is basically wet dream material.

themurphy,

Cool, tell me more about this thrilling hobby of yours.

themurphy,

The only reason your boss ever posts something ‘motivational’ is for their own personal gain of earning more money off you.

He never posts “Try to enjoy life. Maybe take a day off sometime to be with your family on an extended weekend and forget work for a while.”

themurphy,

Aah, I get it then.

That’s what you call Government Intervention in a Capitalist Economy. The EU also does this every year, where they distribute help to farmers all around the EU to maintain the essential products. But it’s still hard core capitalism.

themurphy,

In general Sweden and Denmark is mostly run the same way. Non of the countries are pure socialism, but they are sure very successful on physical and mental well-being for their citizens, and giving them a high living standard because of this welfare driven from ideologies of socialism.

themurphy,

I think it’s right to call it UBI when you get a basic income. The universal part is maybe not true though.

And I don’t get what you mean about billionaires.

themurphy, (edited )

I’ve lived in a country with socialism for my entire life, and have studied the laws in my own and other countries without socialism.

I will talk about socialism as it is in Scandinavia, more specifically Denmark. Here’s a few things other than paid education and free healthcare:

  • Getting paid to study: You get paid to study as soon as you turn 18. In that way you don’t need a job while you studying. Basic salary when living away from parents: 1.000 USD/month.
  • UBI: In Denmark we have UBI for people being poor, basically. If you don’t have a job, is sick and can’t work, or any other reason you might be screwed, you get paid by the government to… well yeah, exist basically. You have to meet some requirements and actively trying to get better or find a job though, which seems fair I think. If the government thinks it’s not possible to get better, you can get the money permanently for the rest of your life without doing anything. (this is used for people with disabilities, both mental and physical, both born with it or obtained later in life)
  • Shared heating system: This is maybe the biggest “socialism” thing I can mention. In Denmark your house or apartment can be hooked up to a country wide heating system, which means we all share the same heat. This is a way to make heat distribution centralised, which has major advantages such as; price, availability, maintenance. (Fun fact: every data center build in Denmark needs to be hooked up to this system, as they will “donate” all their excess heat from their servers to the central heating system)
  • Flex jobbing: If you are no longer able to work 37 hours a week, you can be a flex worker. This basically means that you can work 15 hours a week and still get paid a full salary. The government will cover the rest of the pay and also cover some expenses for the company having the flex worker. This system is great for peoples mental health, as they still can feel a part of society even though they can’t work full time. While they still can live a worthy life because their pay is fine. It’s a win-win for the country, the companies and the people needing this.

I could go on, but I don’t want to be that guy praising my own country all the time. We Scandinavians tend to do that.

themurphy, (edited )

Well, the biggest political party in Denmark for my entire life is called Socialdemokratiet, which is social democracy coming from socialism.

I think it’s a pretty big movement.

themurphy,

Aah, okay mb. Sounds like a worse way of doing it, if it’s universal for everyone tbh.

It would inflate prices, making it useless for people who need it. And giving money to people who don’t need it doesn’t make sense. It’s kinda greedy when some people actually need the money.

themurphy,

Can you explain how the US has a more socialist agricultural policy? I don’t think I’m familiar with it.

themurphy,

Smart way of doing it if the tax system can be adjusted for it.

US residents: What big domestic policy improvements have the american people won from congress in the last 30 years? (kbin.social)

Interpret improvements as you like. For me it's any large scale reforms or legislative packages designed to improve the country for all or see to the material interests of the majority without overly benefiting the elite....

themurphy,

That was an EU thing.

It was also cheaper for manufacturers to use the same design in both USA and Europe, which made it an easy implementation for the States.

themurphy,

Yeah, companies always fight for themselves, and never the customers!

With that change they had to measure what they actually put into the products. That cost money, which is a great reason to discard people’s health.

themurphy,

Honestly though, I don’t know if stopping things from getting a lot worse should even count as an “improvement”.

It shouldn’t. It’s a very low bar for a modern country.

themurphy,

Just a question but do you use proxmox yourself? And if yes, what services would you recommend to run?

themurphy,

Great rundown, thanks!

I don’t have a background in software, but I think I’m doing okay with my Raspberry Pi’s so far.

And I’m looking for more challenging stuff, so this was very helpful.

themurphy,

To calculate the odds of getting a passing grade (at least one question correct) or a perfect score (both questions correct) through brute-force guessing, let’s break down the scenario:

  1. Each question has 4 possible answers, and only one is correct.
  2. You have two attempts to answer each question.
  3. You remember your previous answers and do not repeat them.

First, we’ll calculate the probability of guessing at least one question correctly. There are two scenarios where you pass:

  • Scenario 1: You get one question right and one wrong.
  • Scenario 2: You get both questions right.

For each question:

  • Probability of getting it right in one of the two tries = ( 1 - ) (Probability of getting it wrong twice)
  • Probability of getting it wrong in one try = ( \frac{3}{4} ) (since there are 3 wrong answers out of 4)
  • Probability of getting it wrong twice = ( \left( \frac{3}{4} \right)^2 )

So, the probability of getting at least one question right in two attempts is ( 1 - \left( \frac{3}{4} \right)^2 ).

For two questions:

  • Scenario 1 (One Right, One Wrong):
    • Probability of getting one question right (as calculated above) multiplied by the probability of getting the other question wrong twice.
  • Scenario 2 (Both Right):
    • Probability of getting each question right (as calculated above) and multiplying these probabilities together.

The overall probability of passing (getting at least one question right) is the sum of the probabilities of these two scenarios.

Now, let’s calculate these probabilities.

themurphy,

GPT-4 answered this. I will link it’s calculations down below in the next comment.

The probability of passing the test by brute force guessing (i.e., getting at least one question right) is approximately 68.36%. This includes the scenarios where you get one question right and one wrong, or both questions right.

Additionally, the probability of getting a perfect score (i.e., both questions right) by guessing is approximately 19.14%.

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