For lifestyle reasons, my sense of dreaming is very, very weak and can only remember one time I went to a school I didn’t go to as the most surreal. To be fair it looked like Hogwarts though.
I often get subjected to some weird non-euclidean geometry that makes me dizzy. Of course I usually get dizzy from being sick, but my imagination makes my dreams really weird to explain why.
Tool handles. If you apply a hard glossy coat they just become too damn slippery and if it’s summer it’ll often slip on your sweat and it feels all clammy.
Chopsticks for the same reason, I always find myself dropping my food like an idiot when they are glossy and laqcuered. Especially when I was at a restaurant and for whatever reason they had mirror finished steel chopsticks. What the fuck!
Not sure if it was a fever dream but probably more opiod medication related…
Its some combination of the following
some cartoon wedding segment
South Park?
there’s like a wedding song that gets cut off but it sort of sounds like this but its like an organ and I’m saying that because its possible I was playing that game a little while South Park was playing in background
its only like a 3-4 second motif and I feel like it plays a few times throughout
structurally its conjunct and it starts on the tonic,
P(passing) = 1- P(failure)
P(failure) = P(failure first try)*P(failure second try)
P(failure first try)=(3/4)^2
P(failure second try)=(gonna post in reply)
P(failure second try)=(2/3)^2 since you can eliminate one choice but 2 others are still wrong.
To total:
P(failure)=(3/4)^2*(2/3)^2=1/4
1-1/4=0.75
So the probability of passing is 0.75
Edit:
Remark: this problem is elegant if you attempt to calculate the passing as the complement of failure rather than enumerate all successes. Shouldn't take more than 3 minutes with a clear head if you know the correct approach. If this was an college level intro probability exam question, it should be done the fast way since it's meant to eat up your time otherwise.
The probability of getting both right the first time is easy: 0.25*0.25 = 0.625 or 6.25%
The probability of getting exactly one right is: either you get the 1st one right and miss the second, or vice versa. Thats 0.250.75 + 0.750.25 = 0.50.75 = 0.375 or 37.5%, so the probability of getting at least 50% is 0.375 + 0.0625 = 0.4375 or 43.75%, even without retries, so pretty good odds. The probability of missing both is 1 - 0.4375 = 0.5625 (or 0.750.75).
When you retry, there’s two possibilities:
You missed both: now your probability of getting at least one of them right is: (1/3)(1/3) + 2*(1/3)(2/3) =~ 55.55%
You got only one wrong: you just need to guess the other, so it’s 100% for you to get at least one, and 1/3 (33.33%) to get both
So, including a retry, you either:
Guess them both the first try: 0.0625 or 6.25%
Guess one of them, then guess both: 0.375*(1/3) = 0.125
Guess one of them, then still guess only one: 0.375*(2/3) = 0.25 or 25%
Guess none first, then guess one: 0.56252(1/3)(2/3) = 0.25 or 25%
Guess none first, then guess both: 0.5625*(1/3)*(1/3) = 0.0625 or 6.25%
Guess none, then still guess none: 0.5625*(2/3)*(2/3) = 0.25 or 25%
So, probability of a passing grade is 75%. Not a very good test if it’s so easy to pass by random guessing ;)
Let’s assume you get every answer wrong every time. For the first try you have a 75% chance of getting each question wrong. So this is 0.75x0.75 for both questions being wrong. This is a 56.25% chance of being incorrect on the first test.
The second test you now have 3 possible answers for each question since you can now eliminate the incorrect answers from the previous test. You now have a 66.6% chance of getting each question wrong. This is now 0.66x0.66 to get both wrong, so a 43.56% chance of failing a second time.
Now let’s find the chance that you fail both the first and second attempt. This is 0.5625x0.4356 which gives 24.5% chance of failing both. We can do 1-0.245 to find the chance of passing, which gives a 75.5% chance of passing on one of the two attempts.
Been a long time since I’ve done something like this, so please correct if wrong. You should be able to do the opposite and calculate all the different ways of passing a and total to 100%, but that is longer than this and I cannot be bothered to check.
People are willing to spend or sacrifice for specific goals with good chances of actually reaching them. Otherwise they would turn away, unimpressed.
Also, the measure of how good the chances must be, and how specific the goal needs to be, is very diverse between the cultures and societies.
So, less is more: limit your scope to 1 country and culture, restrain your goals to specific and realistic ones, and you can achieve a lot with many followers.
GPT-4 answered this. I will link it’s calculations down below in the next comment.
The probability of passing the test by brute force guessing (i.e., getting at least one question right) is approximately 68.36%. This includes the scenarios where you get one question right and one wrong, or both questions right.
Additionally, the probability of getting a perfect score (i.e., both questions right) by guessing is approximately 19.14%.
To calculate the odds of getting a passing grade (at least one question correct) or a perfect score (both questions correct) through brute-force guessing, let’s break down the scenario:
Each question has 4 possible answers, and only one is correct.
You have two attempts to answer each question.
You remember your previous answers and do not repeat them.
First, we’ll calculate the probability of guessing at least one question correctly. There are two scenarios where you pass:
Scenario 1: You get one question right and one wrong.
Scenario 2: You get both questions right.
For each question:
Probability of getting it right in one of the two tries = ( 1 - ) (Probability of getting it wrong twice)
Probability of getting it wrong in one try = ( \frac{3}{4} ) (since there are 3 wrong answers out of 4)
Probability of getting it wrong twice = ( \left( \frac{3}{4} \right)^2 )
So, the probability of getting at least one question right in two attempts is ( 1 - \left( \frac{3}{4} \right)^2 ).
For two questions:
Scenario 1 (One Right, One Wrong):
Probability of getting one question right (as calculated above) multiplied by the probability of getting the other question wrong twice.
Scenario 2 (Both Right):
Probability of getting each question right (as calculated above) and multiplying these probabilities together.
The overall probability of passing (getting at least one question right) is the sum of the probabilities of these two scenarios.
GPT-4 is a language model, and while it was an interesting take, it appears to be the wrong tool for the job.
The answer is wrong and without any documentation or proof showing the line of thought to determine the result it’s just a useless number.
Math is not really about the result. It is about understanding the process. Having an AI do that is completely against the purpose of asking this kind of questions in the first place. OP doesn’t need to know if the chance is 68% or 75%, but rather how to figure it out.
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