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ilmagico, to asklemmy in What's your favorite piece of bullshit advice?

One thing that’s sure to make things worse is to tell an angry person to “calm down”…

ilmagico, to asklemmy in The year is 2025. President-for-life Trump watches the Hunger Games on Netflix for the first time and decides he wants to see it in real life. Which tribute do you place your bets on?

I think the whole premise of the question is: trump somehow seized power and become the “supreme leader for life”, democracy is now dead, elections are a sham just like (russia/china/iran/your favorite autocratic nation), so this is exactly the kind of dystopian future where Hunger Games were set. He just made Trump be the ruler.

ilmagico, to asklemmy in Why do people not understand that you can agree with one thing someone said or did while disagreeing with the majority of what they stand for?

That’s because you’re on the internet, and nuance doesn’t exist. It requires thinking, which is hard.

Note: I don’t know JP and don’t have an opinion on him (yet). I’m responding only to the question in the title.

ilmagico, to asklemmy in What are the odds of getting a passing grade by sheer guessing here?

GPT4 is pulling these numbers out of its … I mean, out of thin air ;)

ilmagico, to asklemmy in What are the odds of getting a passing grade by sheer guessing here?

phew… the human race is safe (for now) 😅

ilmagico, (edited ) to asklemmy in What are the odds of getting a passing grade by sheer guessing here?

The probability of getting both right the first time is easy: 0.25*0.25 = 0.625 or 6.25%

The probability of getting exactly one right is: either you get the 1st one right and miss the second, or vice versa. Thats 0.250.75 + 0.750.25 = 0.50.75 = 0.375 or 37.5%, so the probability of getting at least 50% is 0.375 + 0.0625 = 0.4375 or 43.75%, even without retries, so pretty good odds. The probability of missing both is 1 - 0.4375 = 0.5625 (or 0.750.75).

When you retry, there’s two possibilities:

  1. You missed both: now your probability of getting at least one of them right is: (1/3)(1/3) + 2*(1/3)(2/3) =~ 55.55%
  2. You got only one wrong: you just need to guess the other, so it’s 100% for you to get at least one, and 1/3 (33.33%) to get both

So, including a retry, you either:

  1. Guess them both the first try: 0.0625 or 6.25%
  2. Guess one of them, then guess both: 0.375*(1/3) = 0.125
  3. Guess one of them, then still guess only one: 0.375*(2/3) = 0.25 or 25%
  4. Guess none first, then guess one: 0.56252(1/3)(2/3) = 0.25 or 25%
  5. Guess none first, then guess both: 0.5625*(1/3)*(1/3) = 0.0625 or 6.25%
  6. Guess none, then still guess none: 0.5625*(2/3)*(2/3) = 0.25 or 25%

So, probability of a passing grade is 75%. Not a very good test if it’s so easy to pass by random guessing ;)

ilmagico, to upliftingnews in California Lawmakers Unanimously Pass Right to Repair Legislation

Does the bill have any provision mandating that parts and repairs be fairly priced (with some reasonable legal definition for “fairly”)? Or is apple going to charge $2000 for a replacement iphone screen part?

ilmagico, to unethicallifeprotips in Rent requirements in the US are nuts

no travel outside of the United States in the last 10 years

Excuse me? This seems completely out of line, of course people want to travel outside the US, and I guess I’d never ever qualify… I somehow find this hard to believe.

ilmagico, to unethicallifeprotips in Rent requirements in the US are nuts

Not sure why you’re being downvoted, but can confirm: plenty of shoddy landlords that won’t check anything. If you want to live in a good (read: expensive) place, though, usually they do.

ilmagico, to unethicallifeprotips in Rent requirements in the US are nuts

I never had to provide my W2 to a landlord. Then again, I’m in Cali … is it that different in NYC?

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