I’m in the exact same boat, to the letter. It’s been great watching interest rates and inflation eliminate 60% of my home buying power in the last year.
In 2008 the economy tanked because the banks had made a habit of cough approving mortgages that they knew people couldn’t afford in the long run. Then they auctioned off those subprime mortgages to smaller banks, and played hot potato until oopsie, economic depression.
If we’re in this boat, who the fuck is buying a home, who approved their loan, and how the fuck is 2008 not right around the corner again?
Thankfully, we are not at risk of another 2008 housing crash at this time - or at least not for the same reason.
The extremely (almost irresponsibly) abridged version of the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis is that banks were giving out loans to people who could not afford to pay them.
The similarly simplified version of what’s going on today is that people cannot afford to take a mortgage and aren’t getting them. Back in the bad old days loan officers would have given out the mortgages anyway to boost their numbers and the bank would have bundled that loan with others to hide it and started the game of hot potato. That isn’t what’s happening today.
That’s not to say a market crash the size of the '08/'09 crash won’t happen, or won’t happen soon, or won’t be caused by the housing market. It’s just that the circumstances that triggered the 2008 crash aren’t present today.
The extremely (almost irresponsibly) abridged version of the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis is that banks were giving out loans to people who could not afford to pay them.
This is the comparison I’m drawing, because it’s what is happening again.
A 200K home mortgage isnroughly 2000/mo. It’s not doable for median income, and the .median house price is like 380k right now. The math doesn’t check out.
Yes. Today you’ll hear people online talking about how mortgages are unaffordable. If they somehow decided to apply anyway the bank would reject them.
The difference between now and the years leading up to the 2008 crash is that loan officers would have given people those mortgages despite the payments not being doable as you said.
A lot of banks were offering variable rate mortgages that had lower interest for the first few years of the loan and advertised this lower monthly payments. This would get applicants in the door. When they asked about the later interest increases (that would bump the monthly payments higher than they’d be able to afford) they were assured that they’d be able to refinance their debt.
This and other shady sales practices are not happening today largely because federal regulations and oversight placed after the fact.
The TL;DR is that the math on mortgages doesn’t check out for a lot of people. In the early 2000s banks were more than happy to give you a mortgage anyway. That simply isn’t happening right now.
It is, though. People are buying homes who cannot afford them all over the US right now. It’s not as though home buying has ceased with the interest rates.
Can you provide a reputable source that large numbers of people are taking mortgages they’re likely to default on?
I have not heard any reporting saying that is happening. I do, however have a family member who works in banking and interfaces with federal regulators that enforce the laws passed to prevent future subprime mortgage crises.
No. My source is basic arithmetic. The math just simply doesn’t check out. Banking isn’t rocket science.
A 200K home mortgage is roughly 2000/mo mortgage. It’s not doable for median household income if about 75k, or about $4200/month after taxes, while grocery prices inflate over 10% year in end, and the median house price is like 380k right now. The math doesn’t check out.
There’s no subprime market ready to collapse. This isn’t a housing bubble. The increase in prices is partially demand and partially inflationary imo.
Interest rates will keep prices level but we aren’t going to see a crash cuz all those companies are cash flush after the ppp fraud and rental Rates skyrocketing. The only houses on the market are ppl who have to sell or ppl who died.
No one wants to jump out of a 3.2% mtg and into an 8% one
I think the interest rate has a lot to do with the declining value of commercial real estate. I think the banks are trying to cover losses. Small businesses going fully remote makes it difficult to sling commercial real estate at the old rates.
I think this is also behind the odd fetish of returning to the office we read so much about.
Oh, I “can”. I just know that $4000/mo is not what we can “afford”. We’d sooner squeeze into her apartment for $1000/mo and not be responsible for anything.
I mentioned in this thread somewhere that I believe we’re in for another 2008 collapse. If I cannot afford a mortgage who the fuck is signing those papers? Same uneducated buyers and predatory lenders as in 2003-2008. I predict a collapse starting this time next year based on I’m high and I just woke up.
Yup. Used to be it was quite easy to find the games that were worthwhile to play since there was very little for profit games and not too much choice. Nowadays only if I hear from people I trust to have a taste for the games I want to play will I actually get excited. Its just easier to go back to classics because you know you’re going to have a better time than most things you buy new.
Always on the look out though, gems are still being produced, they just became a lot less findable.
There is no middle ground between their two conflicting narratives, so neutrality would be impossible unless you found a source that was criticizing every last individual who happened to be in the conflict. The closest you’d get is maybe a Bahai source, and I only say that as a tragically creative solution because Bahais don’t believe in discussing politics while being forced to talk about this because their leadership has been caught in the crossfire of the attacks, having shared a promised land with the Jews and being headquartered there.
People are giving examples of parks that are way off in the boonies.
First, things are not so binary that it’s either high rises and boonies.
Second, NYC has a huge central business district. My own city does not have enough high rises to surround a large park. Such a park would destroy most midsize cities, not enhance them.
Less than 12,000 people live in downtown Cleveland to NYC’s 1.6 million in Manhattan alone. My whole county has 1.26 million, NYC has 8.8 million. I bet person for person, Cleveland has more space than Manhattan
Consider Public Square and the Group Plan malls. Cleveland is also working in a lakefront development.
Yes. I've never had a super easy time getting into new games, and for the past several years I haven't seen one thing that's even slightly interesting. Depression is a factor, but also a lot of new games are straight up dog shit. I tend to fall back on retro gaming. I think I have 90 minutes played in Starfield and that's the only new game I played for the past several years.
Today's Israeli-Palestinian conflict dates back thousands of years and combines politics, religion, race, war, and territory all in one.
If you really want to understand this from a non- biased point of view, your best bet is probably wikipedia, where different people with different viewpoints can debate the facts and non-biased writing is somewhat enforced.
The truth is that it's a very complex conflict with innocent people and some very shitty people, on both sides.
I kinda need to be in the mood to play a game. Usually, once I finally start playing something, it’s easy to keep going. But sometimes I’ll have to be pretty bored before I’ll play a new game. I still haven’t played RDR2, but I seem to be more eager to play metroidvanias and PS1-style indie horror games.
TLDR: Low interest debt that provides long term financial gain is good. Mortgage for primary residence is almost always considered good. Loans to invest into your home that increase its value and make it more reliable/long standing is good. Low interest debt to buy assets for your business is good. Reasonable loans for college is considered good.
Car loans are a bit harder because they lose value as time goes on. But a small loan with good interest is usually considered fine for a car. Buying a brand new car with a loan will almost always be bad, since you’re paying interest to use a depreciating asset. But basically a car loan is always bad if it ever goes upside down, meaning you owe more on the loan than the car is worth. New cars that happens almost instantly.
I think it comes down to just knowing what is good. When you're young you don't have any experience to judge quality by. As you get older you can rapidly assess that something sucks, even if other people are pumping it up. Either in terms of gameplay or plot or whatever, now you have standards. Also, a lot of modern games just don't respect your time, and as you get older you realize your time is valuable so you just don't have the patience for that.
I'm in my 30s, I still game, but I'm a lot quicker to just go "this sucks" and move on to something else.
As if posting from a mobile device somehow prevents you from using paragraphs and punctuation? Give me a break. You either can't be bothered, which means you're not worth interacting with; or you had to repeat at least a high school English class or two growing up. Either way you need to stop blaming your fucking phone.
There's not a good reason for anyone to blame their phone anymore, but mobile formatting used to be a real issue. Different apps required different amounts of blank lines to actually make a separate paragraph, so people often got giant blocks of text instead on accident, or paragraphs with two lines in between them.
Dehumanisation. I feel as though people are increasingly becoming ok with other people being punished for their involvement in something that is genuinely wrong/evil/bad. But the people experiencing the steepest punishments are almost never the people with significant culpability for the wrong/evil/bad decisions.
"Just following orders" might not be a great excuse, but punishing pawns for a king's choices isn't an effective deterrent or remedy either.
Just remember as you read news, these are inherently biased sources. Basically all of them are. Look at who they are citing to understand how bias might affect the information being relayed to you. For example, if Hamas or Gaza Authorities are saying something, it is probably coming from a pro Hamas perspective, if IDF or Israeli authorities are saying something, probably comes with some bias too. This is true of all news, all the time. The spin is real. Anyone claiming a lack of spin are probably the biggest spinners of bullshit. It sucks that to be well informed you have to be able to be literate not only in the language but also how to read journalism itself. But that’s the reality.
I find that as I get older, I struggle trying to keep up with players in high competition games…games like CoD, Halo, even Rocket League I simply cannot get better no matter how much I try. I used to enjoy those kinds of games when I was younger but it makes me a little sad to know I can’t play them…
So I play single player RPGs or Co-op…I’m an absolute sucker for Starfield and similar games
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