1.06 births per woman is going to lead to a population collapse, and I don’t think China is attractive enough to immigrants to make up for the gap.
The developed world would be having similar challenges, broadly, but have higher birth rates, generally, and much higher immigration.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out, but I think fears of a Chinese-led hegemony replacing the current US-centred regime is becoming increasingly unlikely.
Edit: I was curious, so I looked it up, and it’s even worse than I thought:
The net migration rate for China in 2021 was -0.252 per 1000 population
Several contractors with a stake in the carrier debate contribute to my think tank, including Huntington Ingalls Industries HII —the only company in the world that manufactures large-deck, nuclear-powered carriers.
The thing with our current hypersonic missiles is that they’re only hypersonic during the transit. They don’t hit the target at hypersonic speeds. Traveling at those speeds creates plasma around the missile which prevents communication with airplanes, satellites or ground based radars. You also have to be high up in the atmosphere where air is thin or otherwise your missile is going to turn into a fireball way before it reaches the target. This is what also prevents you from attaching a seeker into the front of the missile; that would melt aswell.
This is why Ukraine has shot down Russian “hypersonic missiles” with the US patriot system even though that should be impossible. It is impossible while the missile is still hypersonic but that’s not when you intercept it. You wait for it to get closer and slow down first. That’s why Kinzhal doesn’t really count as a hypersonic weapon or if it does then so does the German V-2 from the 40’s.
I don’t get the claim about it being “impossible” to shoot it down while hypersonic, either.
So maybe it’s high enough that you don’t have any interceptor missile capable of reaching that altitude… but if you had one, that hypersonic ball of plasma is not “hyperluminic”, all that radio noise is going to light up on any radar like a beacon. Sounds like it should be easy to predict its trajectory, particularly knowing that it can’t maneuver much at hypersonic speeds, so it should be even easier to plot an intercept course.
It may by impossible to shoot it down from behind, or from a plane right underneath that doesn’t have hypersonic interceptor missiles, but from any position in front of the enemy missile… you could float a balloon onto its path, and hit it.
Also, there is lasers. They may not be great as an offensive weapon, or too easy to mount onto a plane, and need several seconds to burn an incoming missile to a crisp… but they do work at the speed of light, can’t beat that.
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