That tech will regress due to the greed of tech corporations.
Tech is regulated by the big corporations that consistently either throttle innovation or degrade what already is established because they all want to figure out how to squeeze as much profit out of everything possible while blocking or preventing anything new that might compete with them.
Any new innovation that will occur will be military and will either have a machine gun attached to it or can deliver a high explosive.
One potential regression that I see is that the current generative models are abandoned, after being ruled as “infringing copyrights” by multiple countries. The tech itself won’t disappear but it’ll be considerably harder to train newer ones.
The most problematic part is however if one of them survives; likely Google. That would lead to a situation as in your second paragraph.
Law makers will start treating the open source community like pirates because they make LLMs freely available for anyone to run at home. And sure you can debate whether it’s theft or not but you know that’s not why regulations go after them. Meanwhile the mass theft of corporations will be deemed „ethical“ use because they „own“ the data they use. Lobbyism will likely make sure of that I‘m afraid.
Honestly they’re barely hacks at this point, hacking implies some kind of social engineering, internal leak or mad computer skills. The last few major data breaches have been more along the lines of leaving things with default passwords or storing customer data in plaintext.
Profitable tech companies have to maintain their existing businesses, but development of new businesses is likely to stay low and unprofitable businesses are still scrambling to hit profitability before bankruptcy.
It does depend on interest rates to some extent. For the past decade, the prevailing wisdom of the software industry has been to pour money into unprofitable ventures with the hope of getting profitable later. In the past year, austerity measures like heightened interest rates have made it so VCs are more interested in money now instead of money later.
Pulling back from investments is definitely related to the increased interest rate, but there really isn’t any government austerity in the federal government at the moment.
It’s really bizarre how so many business can exist while not turning a profit just because there’s a profit potential because they rose in popularity really fast, Uber will be 15 years old this year.
Car culture means that anyone who does gain a monopoly will still have a ton of small competitors. Delivery services have existed for centuries before Uber. All it did was offer a single interface for a wider area so it can take a cut. Ultimately, I don’t think local deliveries or taxis are profitable enough for there to be a cut for some middleman unless the market is artificially restricted (which it was for taxis, hence Uber being very welcome when they first started up until people realized they were looking to take over what the taxi racket was doing, not give the public more choices).
Classifying drivers as employees for such apps might prevent the non-profit iteration that just charges drivers an infrastructure fee but otherwise allows them to set their own prices. IMO the approach should have been to open up how they charge fees and pay drivers, change it to be commission-based with the drivers getting most of the money. But that might be getting too close to challenging how most of the rich make their money (it’s not from their own hard work).
Even the anticipated cut of 2.25% is still higher than why the Silicon Valley boom was based on. You are also seeing the cuts happening due to an anticipated recession.
Uber has posted profits for the last two quarters. Lyft hasn’t yet been profitable, but they have been reducing their losses quite a bit.
I don’t think either of them will fail this year. Some AI gold rushing unicorns out there certainly will. It’s hard to know which though; they’re still private companies.
Release of Windows 12, possibly backtracks Windows 11 decision of requiring TPM.
I hope so, I built my own PC less than 4 years ago and it can’t run windows 11. I don’t care that much at the moment because I’m not a fan of some of the UI choices (and I only use Windows for gaming anyways) but once support is dropped for Windows 10 I’ll need options.
Oh of course, Linux is my everyday machine (I have 2 separate hard drives in my tower). I just haven’t taken the time to figure out Steam yet, and there are some pieces of work software that either work like shit on Linux or aren’t available at all (yes, I know Wine is a thing but it’s not perfect)
Work is what keeps me away from Linux. That and games. I know things have gotten a lot better for gaming on Linux and that’s great, it’s still limiting, quite bluntly. The games I want to play are not all available on Linux, and some have been more or less abandoned, so they may never work on Linux properly.
Work is the worst offender, since a lot of “business productivity” software seems to require Windows, since nobody in business runs anything other than Windows… Except if you’re running web services, then it’s usually Linux… Almost every app has a “cloud” component now that relies on something running Linux… But you can’t get the client software for Linux because fffffffuuuuuuuuuuu
Ugh, I feel you on the work thing. We use the Microsoft suite and although technically there are online versions of the software, it’s fucking terrible compared to the desktop version, especially Teams (and sometimes I just flat out can’t get Teams to work in the browser since it doesn’t play nice with Firefox). And no, I can’t just use Libre Office because it will fuck up any previous formatting of word docs, or in the case of Excel there will be functions that aren’t supported.
I’ve just accepted that I need to be my own IT support for anything Linux in most day to day applications. Calling or emailing customer service inevitably gets me the answer that Linux is not supported.
Yep, then all the specialty application that are made, especially for peripherals like scanners… Forget about it.
You might be able to get it to function at a basic level, but all the settings and customizable features are not going to exist, and you will also be up a creek workout a paddle if you need support, as you’ve correctly noted.
Linux is a wonderful operating system, and it does what it does very well. The fact is, all the business desktop application software companies stick to Windows because that’s what most people have, and most stay with Windows because business app developers don’t support anything else. The only time I’ve known of any users who had something different, it was almost always a Mac, and they always had parallels or some similar windows virtualization software installed because even their mac isn’t supported.
It still caused issues, but it mostly worked at least.
I just want good, cheap, and mass production ready solid state batteries of any sort. Right now, anything that’s on the market either isn’t good or isn’t cheap, and none of it is mass produced… Often all three.
If we get over the hurdle of something we can mass produce for cheap that’s as good as, or better than the existing lithium tech that we have, I’m in.
The US is going to pressure the EU into loosening regulations for US based tech companies which will result in a return to some, and the advancement of other anti-consumer practices.
There are various trade agreements and partnerships between the EU and US, some of which are more beneficial to one or the other. It’s very common for countries to do this kind of thing to each other, but it’s usually a quid pro quo situation.
I like this one. I’ve been hoping for some host-your -own AI models that I can dump into a system with a bucket of TPUs and a decent GPU for processing and get my own version of something like chat GPT at home then train it on the entire collective works of documentation and help articles about the software I usually do support for so it can act as a defacto repository of “natural language” chat/search for troubleshooting.
I just got a new work PC and they finally have PC’s with a SSD . My old PC was so infuriating to use . Would have to turn it on 30 minutes before my shift to be able to login on time .
Density keeps going up on magnetic platters while prices keep dropping on a $:TB comparison. I see no reason to wish for HDD to ever go away so long as they are cheaper and better for mass storage.
Yeah, but that depends on the use cases. I have a home video and picture library on my NAS. I’d much rather have more storage on an HDD rather than SSD. For the same price, and with RAID 5, I get to store more. I don’t need the SSD speeds to load old pictures and videos.
Now for a boot OS drive, where ky games are, pr my CM images? SSD all the way.
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